A Rollercoaster of Decisions: Navigating Thursday's Trading Terrain

Trading is a constant challenge, filled with highs and lows, successes and setbacks. Thursday, 1/11, proved to be a day of dynamic market movements, testing my decision-making and adaptability. In this blog post, I'll take you through the events of the day, exploring the strategies, successes, and lessons learned.

Morning Unveiling: CPI Report and Initial Rebound The day began with flat overnight prices until the 8:30 CPI report, which came in slightly lower than expected. This drove prices down to the S1 level on the daily chart at 4804. However, a rebound followed, bringing prices back to 4830 around the 9:30 open.

First Trade: Shorting the Weakness As I observed all three PPMs above both of their derivatives, a notable weakness appeared as PPM 2 and 3 couldn't sustain their positive trend, projecting a return to a negative slope. My first trade came at 9:40, going short at 4826. Although PPM 2 hinted at a rebound, I opted to take profits at 4820(10ma), gaining 6 points. In hindsight, letting the trade ride would have been more profitable, considering the negative slope projections on the PPMs.

Second Trade: An Early Dip Buy

At 10 am, I attempted to buy the dip, entering at 4807 as PPM 1 and 2 projected a recovery and return to their positive slopes. However, price immediately dropped below the daily R2 level at 4787, resulting in what could have been a significant losses. A quick reassessment led me to recognize the importance of waiting for PPMs to bottom out before entering a trade. I cut the trade for a minimum loss at 4797 when price bounced back around its 10ma.

Third Trade: Shorting the Bounce

Around 10:50, with price still hovering around the 10ma on the 5-minute chart, I went short at 4794. PPM 3 was projecting itself under both derivatives, and PPM 2 signaled itself getting under both derivatives while maintaining a negative slope. The profit target was set at 4790, and the trade was successful as price drifted down to the target.

Afternoon Recovery and Lessons Learned:

Throughout the rest of the day, price bottomed at 4780 and gradually climbed higher before closing at 4813. Reflecting on the day, I realized the importance of paying attention to PPM 2 and 3 to gauge the momentum of a trade, even if PPM 1 suggests a different direction. Fear of PPM 1 turning positive in the last trade caused me to miss potential gains as PPM 2 and 3 confirmed the downward trend.

Thursday's trading day was a rollercoaster of decisions, illustrating the need for adaptability and a deep understanding of PPM dynamics. While I experienced setbacks, each trade provided valuable lessons that will inform my future strategies. Trading is a continuous learning journey, and Thursday's challenges only add to the wealth of experience that shapes my approach in the dynamic world of financial markets.




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